International linkages improve economic forecasts, boosting global financial stability.
A new type of forecasting model called B-GVAR was created to predict economic variables like GDP, inflation, exchange rates, and interest rates across different countries. By considering how countries are connected, the B-GVAR model made better predictions for inflation, GDP, and exchange rates compared to other models. However, predicting interest rates was still challenging. Using a specific prior called SSVS improved predictions consistently for all variables and timeframes. Overall, the B-GVAR model outperformed traditional models in forecasting economic trends.