New Method Reduces Uncertainty in Estimating Financial Risk for Portfolios
The article explores how to estimate the risk of large financial losses in credit portfolios. The researchers used Monte Carlo simulation to create a probability distribution for portfolio losses, then applied Extreme Value Theory to analyze the tail of this distribution. By using bootstrap techniques, they calculated the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and found that the EVT-based approach resulted in narrower confidence intervals and less sampling uncertainty compared to the empirical method. Additionally, the bootstrap replicate's distribution for the EVT-based method showed a better shape than the empirical method.