New GARCH models revolutionize stock market volatility forecasting!
The article focuses on improving the accuracy of predicting how much stock prices will change in emerging markets. The researchers found that the usual method of forecasting these changes doesn't work well because it assumes the changes follow a normal pattern, which they often don't. To fix this, they tried using different ways of describing how the changes happen, like skewed distributions. They tested six different ways of doing this and found that some were better at predicting stock price changes than others.