Futures prices reveal hidden premiums and storage secrets for commodities.
The article examines how futures prices for commodities like wool, steers, gold, and silver are determined. It compares two theories - one based on storage costs and the other on expected prices and premiums. The study finds that the behavior of futures prices is more in line with the Theory of Price of storage, which considers storage costs, rather than the theory based on expected prices and premiums. This suggests that the ability to predict future spot prices is related to the storage characteristics of the commodity being traded.