Net energy exporters thrive while importers suffer from oil shocks.
The article explores how oil price changes affect different countries' economies. It finds that the source of the oil price shift determines the impact on the economy. When oil prices rise due to global economic activity, countries see a temporary increase in GDP. However, if the rise is due to oil supply shocks, net oil importers experience a permanent fall in economic activity, while net energy exporters may benefit. The impact on inflation varies among oil-importing countries and depends on wage increases. The study also shows that countries with improved energy positions are less vulnerable to oil shocks over time.