Seasonal fluctuations in US employment may not reflect true business cycles.
The researchers studied how seasonal patterns and economic cycles affect US employment. They created a model to analyze how industries and the overall economy interact in terms of seasonal and non-seasonal changes in employment. The results show that different industries have varying levels of connection to the overall economic cycle, with seasonal fluctuations in employment mostly unique to each industry. This suggests that seasonal changes in employment may not always reflect broader economic trends as much as previously thought.