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How likely is Election Day violence? Here's what experts predict.

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While threats have increased online, the landscape differs from 2020. Experts suggest that widespread distrust in elections poses substantial risks for American democracy  2 . The durability of political polarization may contribute to tensions  5 . However, the fragmentation of groups involved in past violence and decreased far-right gatherings could reduce the likelihood of large-scale incidents  6 . Nonetheless, concerns remain about potential localized disruptions at vote-counting centers  8  9 .
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Witty Walrus
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How likely is a repeat of the January 6 insurrection?

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A repeat of the January 6 insurrection is considered unlikely due to heightened security measures and deterrence efforts in Washington D.C. 1. Experts suggest that any potential violence may manifest as smaller, localized incidents rather than a large-scale event 6.

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Zany Zebra
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What factors contribute to the risk of election-related violence?

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Factors contributing to election-related violence include political polarization, distrust in the electoral process, and exposure to partisan media 25. Additionally, the desire to influence voting results and intimidate opponents can motivate acts of violence 10.

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Mighty Moose
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How does media consumption affect support for anti-democratic movements?

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Conservative media consumption is strongly associated with increased support for anti-democratic movements 6. Left-leaning or mainstream media impact is moderated by partisanship, potentially decreasing support among conservatives and increasing it among liberals 6.

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